Aug 12

Guardian experts give their predictions for the 2011-12 season

Manchester United fancied to win their 20th title, while QPR are strongly tipped to go straight back down

Who will win the Premier League?

Kevin McCarra A well-equipped and fairly settled Manchester United, even if Wesley Sneijder never arrives. However, Manchester City are gradually improving and may still be active in this transfer window.

David Pleat It should be extremely competitive, and though I think Chelsea really have a great chance I’ll go for Manchester United. They have the vibrancy of youth about them, and their strength in depth is impressive – they’ve got six pretty decent wingers.

Richard Williams Manchester United, because they have the squad depth and the group dynamic – and Ferguson will want a 20th title for the club as he celebrates his 25th year in charge and his 70th birthday.

Paul Hayward Manchester United. Villas-Boas will need time at Chelsea, City still face a big leap and Arsenal lack hardened winners. A strong United nucleus supports emerging youth.

David Lacey Manchester United. United may still be in transition but already fresh talent is starting to bud and Alex Ferguson does know how to win championships. Potential rivals still look short.

Paul Wilson Manchester United. If I have said that once I have said it a hundred times, and all of those were before their classy showing in the Community Shield. Apart from the fact that they have all the experience in the world, I just don’t see this being the season for City, Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool. Or anyone else, needless to say.

Who will be the first manager to leave his job?

KM – Bookies say Steve Kean or Neil Warnock, but dismissal is a Newcastle speciality, as Alan Pardew will realise. No stability there since Sir Bobby Robson lasted five years (1999-2004).

DP – This is none of my business, really, but I can see three managers who for different reasons might find themselves under pressure. Steve Kean at Blackburn and Arsène Wenger at Arsenal could find themselves the subject of supporter pressure, while there is a chance of conflict at Newcastle destabilising Alan Pardew.

RW – Steve Kean (Blackburn), because far from persuading Kaká, Robinho or Ronaldinho that their destiny is at Ewood Park, the chicken-plucking owners have been selling players, and the Scot is likely to pay the price.

PH – Steve Kean (Blackburn) was a punt by the club’s Indian owners and would be cheap to fire. Venky’s would rush to protect their investment if results were poor.

DL – Neil Warnock (QPR). Rumours about Warnock’s position were rife long before the season started and despite the denials he will need some early wins if he is not to become an early casualty.

PW – I’m not keen on this sort of betting market, but were I forced to place a bet I would probably be looking at Messrs Kean, Warnock, Pardew and McLeish. Kean looks favourite, though Blackburn could continue to behave unpredictably and Villa may be the ones to panic if things should start badly.

Who will be relegated?

KM – It looks particularly tough for newly promoted Norwich and Swansea. Wigan, 16th in last two seasons, could be under strain.

DP – I’d go for Blackburn, Wigan and QPR. Many teams are going to struggle, though maybe Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Bromwich might move clear. Swansea and Norwich won’t be far away, but I can see them both surviving.

RW – QPR, because not even Neil Warnock’s powers can overcome such footballistically ignorant owners. Newcastle United, for similar reasons. And Norwich City, because sometimes even great owners cannot ensure survival

PH – QPR, Wigan, Swansea. Chaos at Loftus Road will hinder Neil Warnock, Swansea will have to be content with parachute payments and Wigan can’t keep dodging reality. Blackburn will also be down there.

DL – Swansea, Wigan, QPR. Wigan cannot keep escaping and Swansea and QPR look short of the depth needed to sustain a successful campaign to stay up. Norwich may struggle but should be stronger this time.

PW – I’m taking Norwich to stay up and the other two promoted clubs to go down, with Blackburn. I have said that elsewhere, so I’ll have to stick to it, even though I am beginning to wonder if Swansea could be this season’s surprise package/breath of fresh air.

Who will prove the best summer signing?

KM – Ashley Young at £18m from Aston Villa. His pace, versatility and reliable final ball should be ideal for a club with Manchester United’s mentality.

DP – I remember saying six years ago that it was Edwin van der Sar, and I was proved right with that one. In 2010, though he joined in January, I thought Stuart Holden was a great signing for Bolton. This time I’ll go for Phil Jones at United. He might struggle to push his way past the established centre-back pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, but I’ve got a feeling they might play him in midfield, alongside a creative player – whether it’s Anderson, or perhaps Wesley Sneijder if they sign him. I can see him playing regularly.

RW – Charles N’Zogbia (Aston Villa). It may not be the easiest of seasons at Villa Park, but the underrated Frenchman has enough talent and drive to provide inspiration for his young colleagues.

PH – Sergio Agüero exudes glamour and will bring more ingenuity to Man City’s attacking play. His skill could inspire the rest of the team. Will combine well with David Silva.

DL – Charlie Adam (Liverpool). Adam made Blackpool watchable last season and the range and subtlety of his passing should restore the sort of quality in midfield which Liverpool have been lacking.

PW – Hard to say at this stage, because the transfer window is still open. It will be interesting to see if Chelsea really have signed the new Didier Drogba, and also to see where all the Liverpool midfielders fit in. For the money, Charlie Adam could be best value of all.

Premier League 2011-12Premier LeagueManchester UnitedManchester CityChelseaArsenalLiverpoolBlackburn RoversWigan AthleticSwansea CityNorwich CityQPRKevin McCarraDavid PleatRichard WilliamsPaul HaywardDavid LaceyPaul Wilsonguardian.co.uk

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Feb 01

Chelsea owner pursues Champions League fixation before Uefa rules bite

The £50m purchase of Fernando Torres should not stop Roman Abramovich complying with new financial fair-play regulations

As speculation about the imminent arrival of Fernando Torres reached fever pitchyesterday, one Chelsea insider explained that Uefa’s financial fair-play doctrine ran through the club’s operations “like a stick of rock”. For many including Michel Platini, the Uefa president who has repeatedly claimed Roman Abramovich is a supporter of his reforms, which will broadly forbid clubs from spending more than they earn, that will be hard to swallow.

It was with no apparent sense of irony that Chelsea released their results – showing losses had increased to £71m despite the vaunted drive towards self-sufficiency unwisely trumpeted by the former chief executive, Peter Kenyon – on the same day the club splashed out almost exactly the same again on Fernando Torres and David Luiz. For Chelsea insiders it was further affirmation of Abramovich’s continued appetite for the club – even in the face of the huge investment by Manchester City owners effectively copying the model he employed at Stamford Bridge when he bought the club in 2003. Abramovich is used to his fidelity being questioned. Every absence from the club is keenly noted and when he converted £726m in loans that have underwritten his huge investment to equity in two tranches, there were those who saw it as a potential parting gift rather than a sign of his commitment. The money is now owed by the parent company that holds his shares rather than the club itself. Despite his having refused to conduct a single interview since 2003, his money continues to talk for him.

There is little doubt that Platini is telling the truth when he speaks of the personal mandate he has received from Abramovich for his financial fair-play plans.But the Chelsea owner is equally aware that not qualifying for the Champions League would be more catastrophic than setting back his breakeven target a year or two.

Both the club and those close to him in Moscow have continued to insist he remains as committed to Chelsea as ever. They claimthere is no inconsistency between the huge investment in Torres, a player long coveted by Abramovich, and a long-term plan to break even.

Huge investment in the club’s academy – allowed under the financial fair-play rules – is beginning to bear fruit, they argue, even if more players in the 22-26 age range may have to continue to be bought to smooth the academy players’ introduction.

Although Platini continues to talk tough, examined in detail the goal of complying with the fair-play criteria appears achievable – even taking the signing of Torres into account. The first accounts that will qualify concern the next financial year – 2011-12.But Uefa’s accountants will not start examining them until the 2013-14 season, when they will take both 2011-12 and 2012-13 into account.

Even then, there is an “acceptable deviation” of €45m (£38.5m) over those first two years. And, as first revealed in the Guardian last month, if clubs can show their figures are moving in the right direction, then they are also allowed to discount the wages of players on contracts signed before June 2010.

The argument runs like this: this week’s figures ran to the end of June 2010. Since then, Chelsea have reduced the annual wage bill by maybe £20m by moving on the likes of Juliano Belletti, Joe Cole, Michael Ballack, Deco and Ricardo Carvhalo and brought in some £15m in fees. Those brought in – Yossi Benayoun, Ramires – were on more modest salaries.

A renegotiated deal with Adidas, new sponsorship partners, increased ticket prices and improved Champions League and Premier League TV deals finally had them moving towards breakeven, say club insiders. While Torres alone will add around £10m a year to the bill in amortised transfer fees and £10m in wages, the club expect to move other high earning, older players in the summer and continue to boost commercial deals. Club insiders point out that they tried to sign Torres in the summer and that chairman Bruce Buck and chief executive Ron Gourlay have long insisted the funds for a marquee signing could be found if required.

For Chelsea, finding a stadium naming rights partner – a long held goal that has yet to bear fruit – and overhauling other sponsorship deals is disproportionately important. With no ground move on the agenda, the club will continue to have to run to catch up rivals with bigger stadiums. To that end, they will tour Asia in the summer as part of an ongoing plan to tap into developing markets and hope the capture of Torres – for all their previous investment arguably the first bona fide “superstar” signing – will help that process. In the short term reliance on the man who changed the face of English football when he appeared as if from nowhere and took control of Chelsea in a £140m deal in 2003 is likely to continue. Monday’s splurge represented his biggest outlay since 2004.

There is another factor at work that may underpin Abramovich’s renewed appetite for investment at home and abroad. Politically he has never felt more secure. As Abramovich sat yards away from Vladimir Putin in Zurich in December in the wake of Russia’s victory in its campaign to host the 2018 World Cup, Abramovich appeared at once characteristically awkward with his public role and bathed in quiet satisfaction. As well as contributing to the $30m (£19m) campaign budget, Abramovich quietly used his contacts in the game to help the Russian cause. Kremlinologists say Abramovich has remained close to Putin because he understands how to keep on his right side.

For all that he is usually pictured in the British press aboard his yacht, as recently alongside his new wife and new baby, or at Stamford Bridge he is still said to spend more time in Moscow than in London or more glamorous locales.

He is estimated to have invested between $30m and $50m a year in Russian football in the past five years – first paying Guus Hiddink’s wages as national coach and more recently in building scores of artificial pitches across the vast country and funding youth academies. While that pales in comparison with his Stamford Bridge losses, it is telling that Putin said Abramovich would be expected to fund the construction of one of the new World Cup stadiums.

Two years after he stepped down from the presidency for constitutional reasons, Putin remains the country’s most powerful politician and speculation continues to rage over whether he will return to the post in 2012. As long as he remains in his pre-eminent position, Abramovich would appear to be in a strong position. And while spending big in the summer, in the wake of a Double victory, might have appeared wanton, to do so when Chelsea risk not making the Champions League places might be easier to make a case for.

The debate about whether he will redirect his investment is a false construct, say those close to him. A man whose wealth was estimated at £7.4bn and w by the latest Sunday Times rich list,ho retains sizeable interests in gold, real estate and steel, can well afford to sustain his passion for the London club alongside other business and leisure pursuits, they argue.

Abramovich, who made his fortune in the bitterly disputed but entirely legal dash for state assets in the mid-1990s, will keep his counsel. But as long as he remains silent – he has not given an interview since 2003 – mystery will continue to surround his long-term intentions. Will this latest splurge come to be seen as the start of a new phase in the Chelsea project that will combine fiscal stability with on-field success, as the club insists, or as one last hurrah, an attempt to squeeze a longed-for Champions League victory out of an ageing squad?

Roman AbramovichChelseaFernando TorresUefaMichel PlatiniOwen Gibsonguardian.co.uk

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Jan 31

Fernando Torres could prove to be a bargain for Chelsea at £50m | Kevin McCarra

The striker is capable of breathing new life into an ageing side – if he can cope with the level of expectation

When Fernando Torres had his medical with Chelsea, it would have been helpful if the club could have checked how great a load he can carry. Unfortunately the weight he must bear is all in the mind and no one can tell whether he will buckle or not. The £50m price is a measure of his ability, but also of the expectations that await him.

The manager, Carlo Ancelotti, will strive to play down the demands made of the newcomer. Torres, it is true, will not be treated as a man capable of turning back time single-handed. Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and Nicolas Anelka will continue to be players of an attacking style who are turning into veterans. Anelka, 32 in March, is the youngest of them. In that same month Torres turns 27 and the period ahead ought, in theory, to be his zenith.

There is an issue over integration into the line-up. Chelsea, in common with most clubs, employ one centre-forward, with Anelka in a slightly wider and deeper position and Drogba as the spearhead. With the advent of Torres, the Ivorian might seem the player most likely to be displaced, although he does not seem the sort to accept demotion placidly. Ancelotti may have been making a pre-emptive effort last week to mollify the striker.

“In general Drogba can play with anybody, including Fernando Torres,” the manager said. “Didier’s in great form – his malaria has gone and he looked in fantastic condition at Bolton. From now to the end of the season, he will be fantastic for us.”

This line of argument would imply that Chelsea will revert to a 4-4-2 system, regardless of the fact that such a formation is rare among prominent teams. Given his relative youth, it should be Torres who is preferred if and when it becomes essential to choose a single striker. The fee indicates just how much the club is counting on him.

All transfers, regardless of the fee, carry an element of risk. It would be an absurdity as much as an insult to suppose that Chelsea have not considered the Spaniard’s medical history. Groin and hamstring injuries, as well as knee surgery, will have been noted, but Torres does not really come across as an invalid. His total of nine goals for Liverpool at this stage in the campaign requires no apology, particularly since the team’s form had been abject until recently. He did reach a tally of 33 in the 2007‑08 campaign, but any subsequent decline in impact is nowhere as steep as that of the Anfield squad as a whole. It must have been of great benefit to Torres three years ago that Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano were around to give the side such a base in midfield.

Chelsea have a footballer who is likely to improve the team noticeably. It would have been better for the club if they could have identified undervalued footballers who then made their names at Stamford Bridge. Some recruitment has been good and, considering the inflation in transfer prices when Chelsea express an interest, it was a coup to get the defender Branislav Ivanovic for £9m.

More generally, the club has had trouble doing smart business. Daniel Sturridge was taken from Manchester City, with an initial sum of £3.5m paid in compensation. At the end of this transfer window, however, Chelsea were prepared to let him go to Bolton Wanderers on loan. On the whole, they have much to do before anyone is convinced that they can renovate the squad more cheaply in the year ahead.

Frank Arnesen will be leaving the club in the summer. He was appointed in 2005 to locate emerging talent, but there have been no real coups. Josh McEachran could well turn out to be one, but the 17-year-old midfielder has been connected to Chelsea since he was eight. It has to be stressed that there have not been too many native prodigies to be uncovered, which explains the justified amazement when someone such as Arsenal’s Jack Wilshere appears on the scene.

Clubs of means sigh and meet the cost of someone like Torres. The owner, Roman Abramovich, may have in mind one particular return on the investment in Chelsea. It looks too late for the Premier League to be retained, but the forward is eligible for the Champions League. A price of £50m might be seen as a bargain if it delivers the great prize that has so far been denied the club’s

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