Grounds for change: why Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs are on the move | Matt Scott

Lucrative naming rights deals and attractive interest rates are persuading clubs this is the right time to build a new stadium

“What’s in a name,” Juliet asked herself in literature’s most famous rom-com. Had the answer been £14.9m a year then perhaps Romeo might not have shed his so lightly.

Remarkably that near-£15m figure is what analysts at American Appraisal estimate the naming-rights of Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium to be worth if they were to renew the deal today. It makes Arsenal’s ground theoretically the most valuable naming-rights property in English sport (venues such as Wembley or Wimbledon being unlikely ever to cash in).

Currently the Gunners are earning only £3.6m a year from their 15-year agreement with the Dubai airline. That was because the deal was discounted to generate a lump sum of cash that was instrumental in building the stadium Emirates would sponsor.

The deal commenced in 2006, and since then analysts believe the rise in global interest in English football to have driven huge value in naming rights. Five years ago the Premier League’s overseas broadcast rights were collectively worth £320m over three years. The current set of three-year agreements generates £1.4bn, a multiple of 4.375 on the 2006 figure.

That exponential trend has been tracked by the value in stadium naming rights, according to American Appraisal’s managing director, Mike Weaver. “The price for the equivalent media exposure in such deals can be valued relatively easily using the cost of buying the media direct, but the more intangible brand association is more difficult to quantify and can sometimes be significant,” he says.

Yet the media exposure is not always positive. As Newcastle United found, the proposal to sell rights to St James’ Park, unusually marketed by attaching the Sports Direct name to it beforehand, proved disastrous.

Newcastle fans stirred up a storm of protest that led sponsorship consultants to say the announcement had reduced the value of the property.

Indeed, whereas the club’s managing director, Derek Llambias, hopes to raise “between £8m and £10m a year” from the deal, American Appraisal’s analysis estimates it now to be worth £1m.

It is for this reason the same analysts gauge that Old Trafford and Anfield, despite being the homes of England’s two best-supported clubs both domestically and overseas, would raise less than £10m each. Local resistance to renaming a beloved community asset for a few dollars more would dissuade even the most globally focused corporate sponsor.

Weaver suggests that if Liverpool were to move away from Anfield, they could expect at least to double the estimated £9.3m a year they might raise in their present home, even more than Arsenal. “There is no question that stadium rights deals are much less valuable for existing stadiums,” Weaver says. “The deal value for a sponsor of a new stadium comes from a close brand association and corporate partnership rather than simply the value of the airtime and column inches it generates in the media.”

Such are the rewards on offer that American’s analysis transforms the calculus for clubs considering whether to build new stadiums. In 2008-09, their third year at the Emirates and when gross debt taken out to finance the stadium and Highbury Square construction projects peaked at £415.6m, Arsenal’s total interest bill was £19.3m.

Since then general interest rates have fallen to historically low levels (although even at the height of the easy-credit culture Arsenal did achieve an exceptionally cheap deal). Indeed if the interest expense on a stadium project can be covered by naming rights – as Weaver’s estimates suggest – then a new ground could theoretically be built at zero net cost to the club’s cash account. All extra gate money from the expanded capacity would go straight to the bottom line.

But there is another twist: regulatory developments could provide a further incentive to development for the biggest clubs. Uefa’s financial fair play rules make allowance for infrastructure spending on capital projects like stadiums and training grounds.

It means that while they have to be paid for in cash, the project-finance expenses associated with stadium development do not count towards the overall losses a club makes when they are considered by Uefa’s regulations. If so, clubs will have two cash boosts: the overall sponsorship take will grow through an eight-figure naming-rights deal and the ticket revenue from executive boxes and general admissions will also improve. But, crucially, at the same time as clubs add these tens of millions extra to their revenues the losses they incur under FFP regulations would be unaffected.

So, for example, a club spending £400m to improve their stadium from 40,000 to 60,000 may pay £20m a year in interest on project-finance loans. That expense could be offset by £18m of naming-rights revenue while also adding an extra £80m a year in match-day income, making the club £78m better off each year. For the purposes of FFP, because the bank interest is allowable, the effect for regulators is that the club’s income has improved by the full £98m.

That, for any club, is a game-changing sum. Those who may wonder why Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea have been considering expensive new-stadium projects – even in the face of the deepest recession in living memory – may now have their answer.

Premier LeagueBusinessArsenalLiverpoolChelseaTottenham HotspurMatt Scottguardian.co.uk

Chelsea release Joe Cole and Michael Ballack

• Tottenham have expressed interest in signing Cole
• Ballack wanted two-year deal but Blues offered 12-months

Chelsea are to release Joe Cole and Michael Ballack when their contracts expire at the end of the month after failing to agree terms over new deals with the experienced internationals.

Cole, currently with the England squad in South Africa, moved to Stamford Bridge from West Ham United for £6.6m in 2003 and made more than 200 appearances for the Blues. However, he has only played a bit-part role at the club since suffering a serious knee injury in an FA Cup third-round replay at Southend United early in 2009.

That lengthy absence frustrated his attempts to earn improved terms at the club, with the player’s wage demands proving at odds with the terms Chelsea were prepared to offer. Cole had been seeking around £100,000-a-week, with the Londoners only willing to match his current £80,000-a-week package. Negotiations have stalled in recent weeks, leaving his departure somewhat inevitable.

Tottenham Hotspur have expressed an interest in signing the 29-year-old midfielder, keen as they are to strengthen their squad with a potential Champions League campaign ahead.

The fact that Cole would be available without a transfer fee may offer them some leeway in compensating for his considerable salary. A move to Arsenal, which has been mooted in some quarters, still appears unlikely given the wage demands the England international is likely to make.

Ironically the Chelsea assistant manager Ray Wilkins this week insisted that the club would do everything they could to keep hold of the playmaker. “We’ve obviously been in dialogue with Joe for months now and it’s pretty evident that Carlo [Ancelotti] and myself would love Joe to stay, but it’s down now to the club to see what we can do,” he said. “We sincerely hope Joe stays with us – he’s a smashing guy and he’s a wonderful footballer so we’ll keep our fingers crossed.”

Ballack’s exit is, in many ways, more surprising but, again, is due to Chelsea’s desire to reduce their considerable weekly wage bill. The Germany captain, who will miss the summer’s tournament in South Africa after damaging an ankle in a challenge by Portsmouth’s Kevin-Prince Boateng in last month’s FA Cup final, had been seeking a two-year deal.However, Chelsea were only prepared to offer the 33-year-old, who joined the club from Bayern Munich under the Bosman ruling in 2006, a 12-month contract and were some distance apart when it came to agreeing terms on the financial package involved, with Ballack having signed on £121,000-a-week.

He departs having just claimed his first Premier League title and with Schalke 04, recently qualified for the Champions League, keen to secure his services.

The Guardian reported yesterday how Ballack has become the target for clubs in Dubai, including Al Wasl and Al Shabab. Although only a minor league, clubs in the emirate have huge financial resources and could provide a lucrative swansong for the midfielder. Sven Goran Eriksson, the former England manager and now in charge of Ivory Coast for the finals has also been approached.

ChelseaDominic Fifieldguardian.co.uk

John Terry flies to Dubai for showdown talks with wife Toni Poole

• Chelsea captain boards flight from Heathrow at 8.30am
• Will miss club’s FA Cup tie against Cardiff on Saturday

John Terry boarded a flight to Dubai this morning with the intention of speaking with estranged wife, Toni Poole.

Poole, the mother of Terry’s two children, fled to the UAE soon after reports emerged regarding an affair between the Chelsea captain and Vanessa Perroncel, the ex-partner of the 29-year-old’s former club team-mate Wayne Bridge.

Terry had a serious look on his face as he was escorted to the plane at London’s Heathrow airport shortly after 8.30am, wearing blue jeans and a white hooded top.

The defender, who was sacked as England captain last week, has been given compassionate leave by Chelsea and, as such, will not play in their FA Cup fifth-round tie against Cardiff on Saturday.

“He will come back and prepare for our game against Wolves on the 20th [of this month],” said the Chelsea assistant manager Ray Wilkins after his side’s 2-1 defeat to Everton last night “They just had a little chat, John and Carlo [Ancelotti, the Chelsea manager], and decided that would be the best for all concerned.”

John TerryChelseaguardian.co.uk